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PRODID:-//T4Science Presentation Calendar//
VERIONS:2.0
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SUMMARY:Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional
  climate impact assessment (by Giuseppe Zappa)
DTSTART:20170421T100000Z
DTEND:20170421T110000Z
DTSTAMP:20170407T115406Z
UID:presentation-34.series-5
DESCRIPTION:The response of the atmospheric circulation to climate change 
 is still characterised by large uncertainty and it is not interpretable in
  a probabilistic sense in multi—model ensemble projections. This affects
  the confidence in the projections of several impact relevant climate aspe
 cts\, and it makes it difficult to evaluate the regional implications of d
 ifferent global warming targets. To better characterise and communicate th
 is uncertainty to end-users\, I will here present a novel storyline approa
 ch where different plausible scenarios of atmospheric circulation change a
 re linked to the response of three remote drivers of climate: the tropical
  and polar amplification of global warming\, and the strength of the strat
 ospheric vortex. By inspecting the CMIP5 models output\, different plausib
 le high-impact and low-impact storylines of Mediterranean precipitation an
 d European storminess change will be identified\, and contrasted with the 
 impact of the uncertainty in global warming. The potential to use this app
 roach for model selection in the regional downscaling of climate models an
 d to define worst-case scenarios of regional climate change will be discus
 sed.
LOCATION:SR Wegener Center\, Brandhofgasse 5\, 1st floor
ORGANIZER;CN="Douglas Maraun";ROLE=CHAIR:MAILTO:douglas.maraun@uni-graz.at
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