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SUMMARY:Greener at Home\, Dirtier Abroad? Environmental Policy Stringency 
 and Emissions Embodied in EU Imports (by Syeda Aimen Abbas)
DTSTART:20260416T090000Z
DTEND:20260416T103000Z
DTSTAMP:20260205T121346Z
UID:presentation-184.series-10
DESCRIPTION:The continuing climate crisis has prompted the European Union 
 to adopt an ambitious climate mitigation agenda under the European Green D
 eal. While territorial emissions in the EU have fallen markedly\, such dec
 lines may partly reflect emission offshoring: stricter domestic policies c
 an shift production abroad and replace EU output with imports\, potentiall
 y increasing the consumption-based emissions embodied in imported goods. T
 his study examines whether higher EU environmental policy stringency is as
 sociated with higher CO₂ emissions embodied in EU imports\, using a cons
 umption-based approach that assigns responsibility to EU consumers rather 
 than producer countries.\n\nWe measure policy stringency using the OECD’
 s Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework (CAPMF)\, an internat
 ionally harmonised index covering core climate mitigation policies. The an
 alysis focuses on 31 European importers (EU27\, EFTA minus Liechtenstein\,
  and the UK\, collectively referred to as the “EU” for notational conv
 enience) importing from 150 exporters over 2016-2023. Embodied CO₂ emiss
 ions in imports are calculated using multi-regional input-output data from
  EORA.\n\nBuilding on the structural gravity model of trade\, we estimate 
 multiplicative Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) specifications tha
 t accommodate zero flows and are robust to heteroskedasticity. The baselin
 e model includes exporter-importer-sector and year fixed effects to accoun
 t for bilateral trade costs and common shocks\, consistent with multilater
 al resistance considerations.\n\nResults indicate that the average associa
 tion between stringency and imported embodied emissions is modest in poole
 d estimates. However\, allowing the CAPMF effect to vary by exporter incom
 e group reveals strong heterogeneity: the relationship is positive and sig
 nificant for low- and lower-middle-income exporters\, insignificant for up
 per-middle-income exporters\, and negative and significant for high-income
  exporters. Overall\, the findings suggest a reallocation of embodied emis
 sions in EU imports toward lower-income suppliers as EU policy stringency 
 rises\, consistent with concerns about pollution haven dynamics operating 
 through global supply chains.
LOCATION:SR Wegener Center\, Brandhofgasse 5\, 1st floor
ORGANIZER;CN="Douglas Maraun";ROLE=CHAIR:MAILTO:douglas.maraun@uni-graz.at
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