BEGIN:VCALENDAR
PRODID:-//WEGC Common Space Presentation Calendar//
VERIONS:2.0
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:An Evaluation of Dynamical Downscaling Methods Used to Project Reg
 ional Climate Change (by Alex Hall)
DTSTART:20250925T070000Z
DTEND:20250925T080000Z
DTSTAMP:20250910T110804Z
UID:presentation-171.series-10
DESCRIPTION:In the past decade\, dynamical downscaling using “pseudo-glo
 bal-warming” (PGW) techniques has been applied frequently to project reg
 ional climate change. Such techniques generate signals by adding mean glob
 al climate model (GCM)-simulated climate change signals in temperature\, m
 oisture\, and circulation to lateral and surface boundary conditions deriv
 ed from reanalysis. An alternative to PGW is to downscale GCM data directl
 y. This technique should be advantageous\, especially for simulation of ex
 tremes\, since it incorporates the GCM's full spectrum of changing synopti
 c-scale dynamics in the regional solution. Here\, we test this assumption\
 , by comparing simulations in Europe and Western North America. We find th
 at for warming and changes in temperature extremes\, PGW often produces si
 milar results to direct downscaling in both regions. For mean and extreme 
 precipitation changes\, PGW generally also performs surprisingly well in m
 any cases. Moisture budget analysis in the Western North America domain re
 veals why. Large fractions of the downscaled hydroclimate changes arise fr
 om mean changes in large-scale thermodynamics and circulation\, that is\, 
 increases in temperature\, moisture\, and winds\, included in PGW by desig
 n. The one component PGW may have difficulty with is the contribution from
  changes in synoptic-scale variability. When this component is large\, PGW
  performance could be degraded. Global analysis of GCM data shows there ar
 e regions where it is large or dominant. Hence\, our results provide a roa
 d map to identify\, through GCM analyses\, the circumstances when PGW woul
 d not be expected to accurately regionalize GCM climate signals.
LOCATION:HS 11.03\, Geography Department\, Heinrichstraße 36
ORGANIZER;CN="Douglas Maraun";ROLE=CHAIR:MAILTO:douglas.maraun@uni-graz.at
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR