BEGIN:VCALENDAR
PRODID:-//WEGC Common Space Presentation Calendar//
VERIONS:2.0
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Probing the unfathomable - Understanding very rare extremes in a w
 arming climate (by Erich Fischer)
DTSTART:20250626T090000Z
DTEND:20250626T103000Z
DTSTAMP:20250618T081341Z
UID:presentation-168.series-10
DESCRIPTION:Recent land and marine heatwaves\, extreme precipitation event
 s and even monthly global mean temperature anomalies shattered previous ob
 served records by large margins and reached intensities that many would ha
 ve conceived impossible based on observations so far.\nHere\, I first demo
 nstrate how in recent decades\, the frequency of such record-breaking and 
 record-shattering extremes strongly deviates from expectations in a statio
 nary climate and demonstrate how the current high rate of forced warming c
 ontributes to the current high occurrence record-shattering extremes. I fu
 rther identify and discuss the extremes of the last two decades with the h
 ighest record margins.\nFurthermore\, I review different ways of estimatin
 g the probability and potential intensity of future record-shattering extr
 emes. Different approaches including statistical approaches\, such as Stat
 istical Weather Generators or the use of Generalized Extreme Value distrib
 utions with process-based covariates as well as climate model-based approa
 ches such as initialized hindcasts\, single-model initial condition large 
 ensembles and ensemble boosting have been proposed to estimate the potenti
 al intensity of future record-shattering extremes. I review the strengths 
 and weaknesses of these approaches and argue that combining different line
 s of evidence is crucial to increase confidence in such estimates.
LOCATION:SR Wegener Center\, Brandhofgasse 5\, 1st floor
ORGANIZER;CN="Douglas Maraun";ROLE=CHAIR:MAILTO:douglas.maraun@uni-graz.at
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR