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SUMMARY:A global discrepancy between models and observations in atmospheri
 c humidity trends over arid and semi-arid regions (by Isla Simpson)
DTSTART:20230426T130000Z
DTEND:20230426T140000Z
DTSTAMP:20230314T154952Z
UID:presentation-127.series-10
DESCRIPTION:Arid and semi-arid regions of the world are particularly vulne
 rable to greenhouse gas driven hydroclimate change.  Earth System Models a
 re our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society in
  these regions must adapt to\, but here a concerning discrepancy between o
 bserved and model-based historical hydroclimate trends will be discussed. 
  While observations of many of the processes of relevance to the hydroclim
 ate\, such as soil moisture and evapotranspiration\, are limited\, we do h
 ave a reasonably complete network of station-based near surface atmospheri
 c humidity measurements as well as reanalysis-based estimates of atmospher
 ic water vapor.  Here\, these datasets will be used along with the CMIP6 m
 odels to demonstrate a rather drastic difference in the nature of near sur
 face humidity trends between models and observations in arid and semi-arid
  regions over the period 1980 to 2020.  It will be shown that models tend 
 to exhibit increases in atmospheric water vapor that are close to those ex
 pected from Clausius Clapeyron scaling\, while atmospheric humidity in rea
 lity has stayed roughly constant over arid and semi-arid regions of the wo
 rld.  This suggests that the availability of moisture to satisfy the incre
 ased atmospheric demand is lower in reality than in models in arid and sem
 i-arid regions and it indicates a major gap in our understanding and model
 ing capabilities\, which could have severe implications for hydroclimate p
 rojections\, including fire hazard\, moving forward.
LOCATION:Online\, https://unigraz.webex.com/unigraz-en/j.php?MTID=m637edc3
 bd4ee068a4d25b59a1d965a02
ORGANIZER;CN="Douglas Maraun";ROLE=CHAIR:MAILTO:douglas.maraun@uni-graz.at
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