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SUMMARY:Future changes in high impact events in new km-scale climate proje
 ctions (by Lizzie Kendon)
DTSTART:20230208T150000Z
DTEND:20230208T160000Z
DTSTAMP:20230116T120731Z
UID:presentation-122.series-10
DESCRIPTION:At the UK Met Office we have recently run climate simulations 
 at km-scale over the UK\, Europe\, Africa and South America. This includes
  the first continuous 100-year ensemble projections at 2.2km resolution ov
 er the UK (an extension of ‘UKCP Local’)\, and ongoing 4.5km ensemble 
 projections over Africa. In this talk I will highlight new understanding o
 f changes in high impact events from these simulations. This includes chan
 ges in intense organised convective storms\, lighting\, hail and sting jet
 s. Using the new 100yr UKCP Local projections\, I will explore the emergin
 g signal of changes in hourly precipitation extremes through time. This pr
 ovides evidence that changes in extremes will manifest\, not as a smooth t
 rend\, but as periods of rapid change followed by pauses. We also explore 
 drivers of changes in severe storms\, and the extent to which impact-relev
 ant changes in storms may be represented differently using pseudo-global w
 arming approaches compared to full global climate model downscaled simulat
 ions. This has implications for the design of convection-permitting ensemb
 le projections in the future. Finally I will discuss next steps for km-sca
 le climate modelling at the UK Met Office and collaborations to exploit th
 e new simulations in downstream impacts modelling.
LOCATION:https://unimeet.uni-graz.at/b/mis-n5l-cqj-gqg
ORGANIZER;CN="Douglas Maraun";ROLE=CHAIR:MAILTO:douglas.maraun@uni-graz.at
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