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PRODID:-//WEGC Common Space Presentation Calendar//
VERIONS:2.0
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SUMMARY:Weighting models by performance and independence:  effects on proj
 ections of future climate (by Lukas Brunner)
DTSTART:20211021T090000Z
DTEND:20211021T100000Z
DTSTAMP:20211015T055212Z
UID:presentation-108.series-10
DESCRIPTION:Political decisions\, adaptation planning\, and impact assessm
 ents need reliable estimates of future climate change and related uncertai
 nties. To provide these the spread in multi-model projections (for example
  from CMIP6) is often translated into probabilistic estimates such as the 
 mean and likely range. However\, considering only the raw model distributi
 on has several potential shortcomings. To address these\, a model weightin
 g scheme\, which accounts for the models’ historical performance as well
  as model interdependence within the multi-model ensemble\, is introduced.
  \nIt is shown that models known to be structurally similar can be cluster
 ed in a  “model family tree” based solely on their output fields. Inde
 pendence weights are then derived for all models based on the degree of de
 pendence between each model pair to correct\, for example\, for shared com
 ponents. Model performance compared to observations is investigated based 
 on several metrics and then translated into performance weights. \nApplyin
 g the combined performance-independence weights to projections of global m
 ean temperature change from CMIP6 leads to reduced warming as well as redu
 ction in uncertainty. Different ways to ensure the quality of the weightin
 g compared to the unweighted case are discussed with a focus on comparing 
 it to a range of other methods. It is shown that there is general agreemen
 t between different constraining methods\, depending on a range of factors
 .
LOCATION:https://unimeet.uni-graz.at/b/rog-dok-lyz-euj
ORGANIZER;CN="Douglas Maraun";ROLE=CHAIR:MAILTO:douglas.maraun@uni-graz.at
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