BEGIN:VCALENDAR
PRODID:-//T4Science / DK Guest Lecture Presentation Calendar//
VERIONS:2.0
BEGIN:VEVENT
SUMMARY:Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate-change 
 information (by Ted Shepherd)
DTSTART:20191204T123000Z
DTEND:20191204T140000Z
DTSTAMP:20191128T215909Z
UID:presentation-101.series-9
DESCRIPTION:Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about w
 hat has happened\, and what will happen (conditional on scenario)\, based 
 on the ‘three-legged stool’ of evidence: predicted by accepted theory\
 , detected in observations\, and consistently represented in models. The a
 pproach is effective for global\, thermodynamic aspects of climate change 
 (warming\, sea-level rise\, increased humidity\, melting of ice)\, but is 
 ineffective when it comes to aspects of climate change related to atmosphe
 ric circulation\, which are highly uncertain. These aspects were barely me
 ntioned in the IPCC WG1 Summary for Policymakers of AR5\, where the statem
 ents of confidence were exclusively based on thermodynamics. Yet atmospher
 ic circulation strongly mediates climate impacts at the regional scale. In
  this way the confidence framework\, which focuses on avoiding Type 1 erro
 rs (false alarms)\, raises the prospect of committing Type 2 errors (misse
 d warnings). This has ethical implications.\n\nAt the regional scale\, how
 ever\, where information on climate change has to be combined with many ot
 her factors affecting vulnerability and exposure — most of which are hig
 hly uncertain — the societally relevant question is not “What will hap
 pen?” but rather “What is the impact of particular actions under an un
 certain regional climate change?” This re-framing of the question can cu
 t the Gordian Knot of regional climate-change information\, provided one d
 istinguishes between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties — something t
 hat is generally not done in climate projections. It is argued that the st
 oryline approach to climate change — the identification of physically se
 lf-consistent\, plausible pathways — has the potential to accomplish pre
 cisely this.
LOCATION:SR Wegener Center\, Brandhofgasse 5\, 1st floor
ORGANIZER;CN="Gottfried Kirchengast";ROLE=CHAIR:MAILTO:g.kirc@uni-graz.at
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR