Does climate change make weather forecasting easier?

Sebastian Scher
Meteorological Institute (MISU) and Bolin Centre for climate research, Stockholm University
SR Wegener Center, Brandhofgasse 5, 1st floor


Global warming projections point to a wide range of impacts on the climate system, including changes in storm track activity and more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Little is however known on whether and how global warming may affect the atmosphere's intrinsic predictability and thus our ability to produce skillful weather forecasts. I will 1) show with a combination of a climate model and a numerical ensemble weather prediction model that global warming will actually increase the predictability of the atmosphere in the extratropics, thus making weather forecasts easier, and 2) discuss the physical causes behind this.
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